OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

I'm pretty sure it was by accident
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6751 by Craig » Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:20 pm

5 years would be much too short to measure something like that on, imo. Go back like, 20 years at least and you're in that 6-8 range.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6752 by jester » Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:41 pm

Craig wrote:5 years would be much too short to measure something like that on, imo. Go back like, 20 years at least and you're in that 6-8 range.


Well, right, but that's a long term investment not so much recent history. 9/11 and the forever war hadn't even happened yet!
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious

Post #6753 by FlyHigh » Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:18 am

I don’t buy this market spike tbh. I have most of my $ outside of emergency fund in a bunch of Vanguard funds and I usually just add some each month, but I haven’t added since we bottomed out in April. Have read more than a few articles that boil down to “no one can really explain what’s happening in the market right now.”

Companies aren’t even going to release their Q2 numbers until early August and Q3 could be a trainwreck if govt doesn’t approve more stimulus and corona starts coming back (already rising in a lot of Southern and Western states). Q2 earnings are going to be disastrous though, it baffles me that the market just seems to be ignoring this. No one outside of Warren Buffett has really gotten rich by timing the market, so this is probably dumb, but I’m going to park my cash in a HY savings fund the next few months and plan to start buying when it goes back down, just can’t imagine this is sustainable.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6754 by CantSeeColors » Sat Jun 06, 2020 1:50 pm

I just park 8% of every paycheck into my 401k and I’ll go back and worry about the specifics in 20 years
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6755 by jester » Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:44 pm

CantSeeColors wrote:I just park 8% of every paycheck into my 401k and I’ll go back and worry about the specifics in 20 years


Yep, don't game it just keep plugging in.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6756 by Kilgore Trout » Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:12 pm

jester wrote:
CantSeeColors wrote:I just park 8% of every paycheck into my 401k and I’ll go back and worry about the specifics in 20 years


Yep, don't game it just keep plugging in.


Especially if your employer does any sort of matching. That’s free money (or at least bargained-for compensation you abandon by ignoring it)
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6757 by CantSeeColors » Sat Jun 06, 2020 8:31 pm

Kilgore Trout wrote:
jester wrote:
CantSeeColors wrote:I just park 8% of every paycheck into my 401k and I’ll go back and worry about the specifics in 20 years


Yep, don't game it just keep plugging in.


Especially if your employer does any sort of matching. That’s free money (or at least bargained-for compensation you abandon by ignoring it)

Sadly mine doesn’t, but the wife works for the fed gov’t, which almost makes up for it
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6758 by Hovercraft » Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:10 am

I'm lucky to be paying into a DB pension plan so hopefully I can keep working here long enough for a full pension, but hard to imagine 20 years from now. I'm starting to try and accelerate how much I contribute to my TFSA investing account but still mostly index funds. My US index is up 26% for me since I started a couple years ago.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6759 by FlyHigh » Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:55 pm

Yeah 401(k) should definitely be set and forget. Reading how many ppl are being forced to draw on theirs now is probably not a great sign for the future.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6760 by jester » Sun Jun 07, 2020 10:18 pm

FlyHigh wrote:Yeah 401(k) should definitely be set and forget. Reading how many ppl are being forced to draw on theirs now is probably not a great sign for the future.


The retirement savings stats on the <50 crowd ain't great.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6761 by JLHockeyKnight » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:26 am

Oh my brokerage account is total play money. Retirement planning/401k is set and I don't touch my emergency fund.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6762 by JLHockeyKnight » Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:29 am

This is from r/personalfinance. A good go to:
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6763 by Rogers Pancreas » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:26 pm

The stockmarket is not rational.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6764 by jester » Thu Jun 11, 2020 6:15 pm

Rogers Pancreas wrote:The stockmarket is not rational.


In small windows? Nope. It's a bunch of degenerate gamblers and predictive algorithms having a greed orgy.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6765 by JLHockeyKnight » Thu Jun 11, 2020 8:42 pm

My children are doing a good job of making sure any rational thought I have left in my brain will be eliminated by the end of 2020.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6766 by Rogers Pancreas » Fri Jun 12, 2020 8:59 am

jester wrote:
Rogers Pancreas wrote:The stockmarket is not rational.


In small windows? Nope. It's a bunch of degenerate gamblers and predictive algorithms having a greed orgy.

That's what I figured. But, I'm still making the right play, I think.

I'm 1) not gambling anything I'm not already willing to lose, 2) prepared to wait a year or longer to get my desired rate of return and 3) setting my desired rate to an attainable level based on a significant amount of historical data.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6767 by jester » Fri Jun 12, 2020 9:24 am

Rogers Pancreas wrote:
jester wrote:
Rogers Pancreas wrote:The stockmarket is not rational.


In small windows? Nope. It's a bunch of degenerate gamblers and predictive algorithms having a greed orgy.

That's what I figured. But, I'm still making the right play, I think.

I'm 1) not gambling anything I'm not already willing to lose, 2) prepared to wait a year or longer to get my desired rate of return and 3) setting my desired rate to an attainable level based on a significant amount of historical data.


As long as you take a long-term view, you're almost certainly fine. Obviously you'd ideally like to buy as low as possible (I'm holding some cash for a 529 fund for my kids at the moment, and I kind of wish I'd put it in a couple months ago ... but if the GOP does squat this summer, there will be another dip when the shock hits, I suspect), but if you're investing with 20-30 years? Just make sure you find the lowest possible broker's fee with a reputable institution -- all evidence says that broker's don't actually beat the market, so paying for them to manage your money is a waste.

But, yeah, as I mentioned up there somewhere I have a number of Wharton grad friends that do this shit. One of whom probably would have become a professional gambler (and died of alcohol/drug OD by now) if he didn't find this outlet.

One of the best things we could do as a country when it comes to economic conversations is get a non-trivial segment of the population to recognize that the stock market does not in any way equate to normal people's finances.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6768 by DeadPhish » Wed Jul 01, 2020 11:16 am

Happy Canada Day to you Canadians!!

And Happy Bobby Bonilla Day to everyone else!
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6769 by CantSeeColors » Wed Jul 01, 2020 4:29 pm

DeadPhish wrote:And Happy Bobby Bonilla Day to everyone else!

lolmets. Bonilla will be making seven figures from the Mets in his early 70s.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6770 by chaosof99 » Wed Jul 01, 2020 5:32 pm

Unfamiliar with it I just read up on Bobby Bonilla day, and that shit is hilarious. Unfortunately it is also kind of ironic for us, since we could have a Ilya Bryzgalov day.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6771 by JLHockeyKnight » Wed Jul 01, 2020 7:46 pm

chaosof99 wrote:Unfamiliar with it I just read up on Bobby Bonilla day, and that shit is hilarious. Unfortunately it is also kind of ironic for us, since we could have a Ilya Bryzgalov day.


Why we heff to have only one day? Can't we heff both?
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6772 by DeadPhish » Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:44 am

JLHockeyKnight wrote:
chaosof99 wrote:Unfamiliar with it I just read up on Bobby Bonilla day, and that shit is hilarious. Unfortunately it is also kind of ironic for us, since we could have a Ilya Bryzgalov day.


Why we heff to have only one day? Can't we heff both?


Or one crazy big day.

Image
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6773 by Konecny HypeTrain Captain » Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:18 pm

Anybody have any experience with LASIK or corrective eye surgery? If anybody has had it or knows anybody who did do they recommend it? After everything settles down I think I'm going to meet with the doctors at willseye and discuss it. If it's reasonable (around $5,000) I think I will lean towards getting it done.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6774 by jester » Sat Jul 04, 2020 3:10 pm

Konecny HypeTrain Captain wrote:Anybody have any experience with LASIK or corrective eye surgery? If anybody has had it or knows anybody who did do they recommend it? After everything settles down I think I'm going to meet with the doctors at willseye and discuss it. If it's reasonable (around $5,000) I think I will lean towards getting it done.


My eye doctor was a fan.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6775 by CantSeeColors » Mon Jul 06, 2020 12:33 pm

Konecny HypeTrain Captain wrote:Anybody have any experience with LASIK or corrective eye surgery? If anybody has had it or knows anybody who did do they recommend it? After everything settles down I think I'm going to meet with the doctors at willseye and discuss it. If it's reasonable (around $5,000) I think I will lean towards getting it done.

I took the plunge ~4 years ago (the day before that giant blizzard that dumped 2-3 feet on us a couple years back) after years of hesitating. Being able to wear sunglasses whenever I want is a huge plus. I had various problems that prevented me from wearing contacts for more than a couple hours at a time, so I had been a glasses guy, and not needing them improves my life in a variety of subtle ways, but I wouldn't say it's life changing. If only they could implant fully functional cones so that I can finally see green!

I had extended struggles with dry eyes after the surgery, for probably like 6-9 months. It was rough. Eventually we determined I needed a special formulation of a fish oil supplement that runs me like $80 a month, but it's all good now. I just need some eye drops first thing every day and the fish oil and I don't have problems. My vision's better than 20/20, which is nice.

My surgeon was Anita Nevyas-Wallace in Bala Cynwyd (right on city line ave). She seemed competent, though there was typically a long wait after checking in at each appointment.

My biggest recommendation: when they give you the Valium before your surgery, make sure you have enough! When they started cutting my first eye, I could still feel it a little bit. Not a fun experience, especially since I was still coherent enough to realize what the smell was when the laser started on my eye (hint: it's a burning eye ball). They couldn't stop half way, so I had to tough it out and get more Valium and painkiller after the first eye was done, and the second was much smoother once that all kicked in.

Also, keep your receipts. You can deduct it on your taxes/pay with an FSA.

edit: I forget the cost, but it was definitely no more than about $5,000, and I think it might have been even less. It was standard LASIK, not any of the more complicated procedures.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6776 by jester » Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:18 pm

CantSeeColors wrote:
Konecny HypeTrain Captain wrote:Anybody have any experience with LASIK or corrective eye surgery? If anybody has had it or knows anybody who did do they recommend it? After everything settles down I think I'm going to meet with the doctors at willseye and discuss it. If it's reasonable (around $5,000) I think I will lean towards getting it done.

I took the plunge ~4 years ago (the day before that giant blizzard that dumped 2-3 feet on us a couple years back) after years of hesitating. Being able to wear sunglasses whenever I want is a huge plus. I had various problems that prevented me from wearing contacts for more than a couple hours at a time, so I had been a glasses guy, and not needing them improves my life in a variety of subtle ways, but I wouldn't say it's life changing. If only they could implant fully functional cones so that I can finally see green!

I had extended struggles with dry eyes after the surgery, for probably like 6-9 months. It was rough. Eventually we determined I needed a special formulation of a fish oil supplement that runs me like $80 a month, but it's all good now. I just need some eye drops first thing every day and the fish oil and I don't have problems. My vision's better than 20/20, which is nice.

My surgeon was Anita Nevyas-Wallace in Bala Cynwyd (right on city line ave). She seemed competent, though there was typically a long wait after checking in at each appointment.

My biggest recommendation: when they give you the Valium before your surgery, make sure you have enough! When they started cutting my first eye, I could still feel it a little bit. Not a fun experience, especially since I was still coherent enough to realize what the smell was when the laser started on my eye (hint: it's a burning eye ball). They couldn't stop half way, so I had to tough it out and get more Valium and painkiller after the first eye was done, and the second was much smoother once that all kicked in.

Also, keep your receipts. You can deduct it on your taxes/pay with an FSA.

edit: I forget the cost, but it was definitely no more than about $5,000, and I think it might have been even less. It was standard LASIK, not any of the more complicated procedures.


This is reminiscent of getting my wisdom teeth out, but much worse. I distinctly remember *hearing* them crack the teeth out, and my God was that cringe inducing even in the gas-induced stupor.

I've given thought to doing this at some point, and apparently I'm a good candidate. The sunglasses thing is no joke, and buying prescription sunglasses was one of the smartest things I've done as an adult. That said, I don't have the contact lens problem it sounds like you had, I just stopped wearing them because my eyes feel like total garbage reading as much as I do with them in.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6777 by Craig » Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:10 pm

My numbing agent wore off half way through a vasectomy. Do I win?
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6778 by CantSeeColors » Tue Jul 07, 2020 1:33 pm

jester wrote:
CantSeeColors wrote:
Konecny HypeTrain Captain wrote:Anybody have any experience with LASIK or corrective eye surgery? If anybody has had it or knows anybody who did do they recommend it? After everything settles down I think I'm going to meet with the doctors at willseye and discuss it. If it's reasonable (around $5,000) I think I will lean towards getting it done.

I took the plunge ~4 years ago (the day before that giant blizzard that dumped 2-3 feet on us a couple years back) after years of hesitating. Being able to wear sunglasses whenever I want is a huge plus. I had various problems that prevented me from wearing contacts for more than a couple hours at a time, so I had been a glasses guy, and not needing them improves my life in a variety of subtle ways, but I wouldn't say it's life changing. If only they could implant fully functional cones so that I can finally see green!

I had extended struggles with dry eyes after the surgery, for probably like 6-9 months. It was rough. Eventually we determined I needed a special formulation of a fish oil supplement that runs me like $80 a month, but it's all good now. I just need some eye drops first thing every day and the fish oil and I don't have problems. My vision's better than 20/20, which is nice.

My surgeon was Anita Nevyas-Wallace in Bala Cynwyd (right on city line ave). She seemed competent, though there was typically a long wait after checking in at each appointment.

My biggest recommendation: when they give you the Valium before your surgery, make sure you have enough! When they started cutting my first eye, I could still feel it a little bit. Not a fun experience, especially since I was still coherent enough to realize what the smell was when the laser started on my eye (hint: it's a burning eye ball). They couldn't stop half way, so I had to tough it out and get more Valium and painkiller after the first eye was done, and the second was much smoother once that all kicked in.

Also, keep your receipts. You can deduct it on your taxes/pay with an FSA.

edit: I forget the cost, but it was definitely no more than about $5,000, and I think it might have been even less. It was standard LASIK, not any of the more complicated procedures.


This is reminiscent of getting my wisdom teeth out, but much worse. I distinctly remember *hearing* them crack the teeth out, and my God was that cringe inducing even in the gas-induced stupor.

I've given thought to doing this at some point, and apparently I'm a good candidate. The sunglasses thing is no joke, and buying prescription sunglasses was one of the smartest things I've done as an adult. That said, I don't have the contact lens problem it sounds like you had, I just stopped wearing them because my eyes feel like total garbage reading as much as I do with them in.

I've also had more than my fair share of dental work and orthodontia, so I feel your pain. The LASIK wasn't as acutely uncomfortable, but I had to grin and bear it for what seemed like an eternity.

I also had that issue with contacts - law school and then legal practice is similar to your volume of reading, I would think. The dry eye issue I had wasn't confirmed until after the surgery, but I suspect it was a contributing factor. On top of that, I'm also apparently allergic to standard contact lens solution, which my eye docs couldn't figure out for years. I finally found a guy who switched me to the hydrogen peroxide kind and it made a world of difference. I guess the moral of the story is that I hope my wife's DNA is what makes it into our kids' eyes, not mine.

Craig, I don't even want to think about what that's like.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6779 by Rogers Pancreas » Fri Aug 07, 2020 10:56 am

I just sold my purchased stocks. Made the 10% I was looking to make, and said "I'm out".
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6780 by JLHockeyKnight » Sat Aug 08, 2020 8:08 pm

I've toned it down to aiming for 10% gains instead of 20%. Sold 2 shares of MSFT on Thursday and banked $43. 11% gain.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6781 by Rogers Pancreas » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:54 am

Yeah, I think I'm warming up to this. I just rolled over what I invested previously, plus the 10% I pulled from Disney, and made another 10% (this time through Delta.)

I think I'm looking at MGM next, but I'll have to do some more research before committing anything substantial.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6782 by JLHockeyKnight » Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:33 pm

IUSG: Bought at $71.98, Sold at $82.51
SPYG: Bought at $45.48, Sold at $51.69
SPLG: Bought at $35.28 and $36.98, Sold at $40.94

I'm actually withdrawing my gains and stockpiling them to pay my car off faster to save on interest.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6783 by FlyHigh » Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:31 pm

Congrats on the gains! One thing that may or may not matter to folks, but you become eligible for cap gains tax treatment if you hold the stock for a year. If it’s a pure “time the market” that’s driving it, then probably doesn’t make sense to hold out for cap gains, but any profit you make on sale will fall into your highest income bracket for the year.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6784 by JLHockeyKnight » Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:32 pm

Right. I factor that in to my gains when I say I'm going to sell at 10-15% gains. I figure if I gain 10% lose 22% to taxes that's like 8% gains (spitballing it) which is still way better than the 0.8% interest in my high yield savings account because the market is still trying to recover from the COVID tank.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6785 by jester » Thu Aug 27, 2020 4:09 pm

JLHockeyKnight wrote:Right. I factor that in to my gains when I say I'm going to sell at 10-15% gains. I figure if I gain 10% lose 22% to taxes that's like 8% gains (spitballing it) which is still way better than the 0.8% interest in my high yield savings account because the market is still trying to recover from the COVID tank.


I don't know what to make of the market right now. The economy is in tatters and DC ain't doing what it should be doing, but Wall St. seems pretty damn confident that it will all work out well ... which seems like an overly optimistic reading on where we're at right now. At the same time, a lot of companies are making a killing in this environment that is also inflating the market a bit. So, I guess it all could even out and be fine ... or it could crash.

All I know is that we bought our house in March, and we are getting close to the predicted appreciation that would let us sell at a profit already. Yay DC housing market!
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6786 by JLHockeyKnight » Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:08 pm

jester wrote:
JLHockeyKnight wrote:Right. I factor that in to my gains when I say I'm going to sell at 10-15% gains. I figure if I gain 10% lose 22% to taxes that's like 8% gains (spitballing it) which is still way better than the 0.8% interest in my high yield savings account because the market is still trying to recover from the COVID tank.


I don't know what to make of the market right now. The economy is in tatters and DC ain't doing what it should be doing, but Wall St. seems pretty damn confident that it will all work out well ... which seems like an overly optimistic reading on where we're at right now. At the same time, a lot of companies are making a killing in this environment that is also inflating the market a bit. So, I guess it all could even out and be fine ... or it could crash.

All I know is that we bought our house in March, and we are getting close to the predicted appreciation that would let us sell at a profit already. Yay DC housing market!


Point 1: It only took time for companies to figure out how to work with/around COVID. Once that happened people got used to it and moved on, and confidence in the stock market went back up. Of course, since the stock market is basically based on that, there is no real controlling it and if we get hit with whatever this "second wave" is gonna be it could easily be in shambles again. So I agree...who the hell knows.

Your second point is crazy.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6787 by Craig » Thu Aug 27, 2020 5:12 pm

jester wrote:
JLHockeyKnight wrote:Right. I factor that in to my gains when I say I'm going to sell at 10-15% gains. I figure if I gain 10% lose 22% to taxes that's like 8% gains (spitballing it) which is still way better than the 0.8% interest in my high yield savings account because the market is still trying to recover from the COVID tank.


I don't know what to make of the market right now. The economy is in tatters and DC ain't doing what it should be doing, but Wall St. seems pretty damn confident that it will all work out well ... which seems like an overly optimistic reading on where we're at right now. At the same time, a lot of companies are making a killing in this environment that is also inflating the market a bit. So, I guess it all could even out and be fine ... or it could crash.

All I know is that we bought our house in March, and we are getting close to the predicted appreciation that would let us sell at a profit already. Yay DC housing market!


The government just borrowed like 2 trillion dollars and sank it just about as directly into consumer markets as they can. The crash will come when the money stops flowing and people stop spending.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6788 by jester » Thu Aug 27, 2020 10:59 pm

Craig wrote:
jester wrote:
JLHockeyKnight wrote:Right. I factor that in to my gains when I say I'm going to sell at 10-15% gains. I figure if I gain 10% lose 22% to taxes that's like 8% gains (spitballing it) which is still way better than the 0.8% interest in my high yield savings account because the market is still trying to recover from the COVID tank.


I don't know what to make of the market right now. The economy is in tatters and DC ain't doing what it should be doing, but Wall St. seems pretty damn confident that it will all work out well ... which seems like an overly optimistic reading on where we're at right now. At the same time, a lot of companies are making a killing in this environment that is also inflating the market a bit. So, I guess it all could even out and be fine ... or it could crash.

All I know is that we bought our house in March, and we are getting close to the predicted appreciation that would let us sell at a profit already. Yay DC housing market!


The government just borrowed like 2 trillion dollars and sank it just about as directly into consumer markets as they can. The crash will come when the money stops flowing and people stop spending.


Well, that's the thing ... it just stopped, and gridlock set in (with big funding bills looming at the end of September), and an election going on ... and the optimism about the pandemic has long evaporated. In the meantime, plenty of evidence we are well past the "permanent damage" phase of this as far as employment. Market hasn't blinked.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6789 by jester » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:01 pm

JLHockeyKnight wrote:Your second point is crazy.


The housing market here is stupid. Want to know what's even dumber? We will almost certainly be able to sell it with no contingencies whatsoever (waived inspection and appraisal).
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6790 by Rogers Pancreas » Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:20 pm

I think I can explain everything: The US is bored with covid.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6791 by FlyHigh » Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:43 am

The market rise is being driven almost entirely by tech and really just by the usual 4-5 suspects (Amz, AAPL, Microsoft, FB, Alphabet). Very bizarre dynamic. I don’t know if you can quite call it a bubble because obviously those companies aren’t going away soon, but you kind of wonder how high P/E ratios are going to go before ppl start selling.

Also not comforting that 4-5 stocks in the same sector can swing the market this way. Market as a whole is increasingly divorced from reality which doesn’t seem like a good thing.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6792 by Rogers Pancreas » Fri Aug 28, 2020 10:43 am

FlyHigh wrote:The market rise is being driven almost entirely by tech and really just by the usual 4-5 suspects (Amz, AAPL, Microsoft, FB, Alphabet). Very bizarre dynamic. I don’t know if you can quite call it a bubble because obviously those companies aren’t going away soon, but you kind of wonder how high P/E ratios are going to go before ppl start selling.

Also not comforting that 4-5 stocks in the same sector can swing the market this way. Market as a whole is increasingly divorced from reality which doesn’t seem like a good thing.

Yes.

And yes.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6793 by jester » Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:13 am

FlyHigh wrote:The market rise is being driven almost entirely by tech and really just by the usual 4-5 suspects (Amz, AAPL, Microsoft, FB, Alphabet). Very bizarre dynamic. I don’t know if you can quite call it a bubble because obviously those companies aren’t going away soon, but you kind of wonder how high P/E ratios are going to go before ppl start selling.


I don't think that stuff is a bubble. They're all benefiting from the forced shift to a more online lifestyle (which was already good business), and the underlying reality is that this current pandemic recession may lead to a permanent shift towards the online workplace/consumerism/etc. that means those wealth accruals may prove lasting. What is concerning, however, is the broader resilience of the market beneath those behemoths. That doesn't seem sustainable. And what the fuck is going to happen when the housing/rental marketplace mess really comes home to roost?

It's just a really bizarre situation. You have middle and up class folks that largely have merely been inconvenienced by the pandemic (i.e., both financially secure and in jobs "easy" to shift to work from home), and working class on down that has been just brutalized.

I'll tell you one thing. It's really great that we passed those tax cuts and drove up the debt ahead of all this. Great fiscal planning that was.

Also not comforting that 4-5 stocks in the same sector can swing the market this way. Market as a whole is increasingly divorced from reality which doesn’t seem like a good thing.


I actually do not think this is a problem in itself. The real problem is that far too many people believe that the market is representative of the broader economy and household economics (my in laws, for example), and far too many people that DO know better are more than happy to talk about the stock market as if it is representative of the broader economy.* I still vividly remember muttering under my breath at my in laws about the Market jump a few years back not mattering to average people, and my mother in law (who has pretty significant investments, and lived in a very nice Ocean City, NJ, townhouse a block from the beach ... ) taking some offense to the notion that she wasn't an average person.

* All of whom are heavily invested in the markets themselves, and only marginally impacted by the "main street" economy.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6794 by JLHockeyKnight » Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:25 am

Rogers Pancreas wrote:I think I can explain everything: The US is bored with covid.


Well good news for you because if we're still in the first wave now, I'd expect it's gonna get real interesting with COVID 2: Electric Boogaloo come this winter.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6795 by jester » Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:37 am

JLHockeyKnight wrote:
Rogers Pancreas wrote:I think I can explain everything: The US is bored with covid.


Well good news for you because if we're still in the first wave now, I'd expect it's gonna get real interesting with COVID 2: Electric Boogaloo come this winter.


It's AMAZING how poorly this has been priced into people's expectations for the coming months. I mean, hopefully, we manage to avoid it getting too bad ... but there's literally no reason to expect things to get better the way we're going, and a number of reasons to expect things to get worse.

I cannot wait for these college campuses to seed new surges in infections.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6796 by Hovercraft » Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:47 am

JLHockeyKnight wrote:Right. I factor that in to my gains when I say I'm going to sell at 10-15% gains. I figure if I gain 10% lose 22% to taxes that's like 8% gains (spitballing it) which is still way better than the 0.8% interest in my high yield savings account because the market is still trying to recover from the COVID tank.



You don't have tax free savings accounts down there I guess? We can have like 50k in an tax sheltered investment account, and limit goes up by 5k per year. My whole TFSA is up over 12% since inception mostly on the back of US Index fund I'm in which is up like 35%. I'm not near the max amount though so gains are still small scale.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6797 by jester » Fri Aug 28, 2020 11:57 am

Hovercraft wrote:
JLHockeyKnight wrote:Right. I factor that in to my gains when I say I'm going to sell at 10-15% gains. I figure if I gain 10% lose 22% to taxes that's like 8% gains (spitballing it) which is still way better than the 0.8% interest in my high yield savings account because the market is still trying to recover from the COVID tank.



You don't have tax free savings accounts down there I guess? We can have like 50k in an tax sheltered investment account, and limit goes up by 5k per year. My whole TFSA is up over 12% since inception mostly on the back of US Index fund I'm in which is up like 35%. I'm not near the max amount though so gains are still small scale.


There are tax free accounts that you can jump into (with strings attached) -- for example, there are both retirement and college-savings accounts that are tax free. But they're talking about just jumping into the market and jumping out, whereas the tax incentive accounts all demand long-term investment and/or specific usage to avoid penalties.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6798 by Hovercraft » Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:11 pm

Yeah we have RRSP and RESP accounts for long term too, but also TFSA which doesn't have any strings besides the upper limit. Can jump in and out. Wasn't a fan of Stephen Harper Conservative government at all but that is one great thing they did.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6799 by Craig » Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:03 pm

It's actually 6k a year now. They doubled it to 10k a year, then changed their minds and made it 5k indexed to inflation to the closest 500 bucks.
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Re: OT Thread, NOT Obsequious 2

Post #6800 by FlyHigh » Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:16 pm

jester wrote:
FlyHigh wrote:The market rise is being driven almost entirely by tech and really just by the usual 4-5 suspects (Amz, AAPL, Microsoft, FB, Alphabet). Very bizarre dynamic. I don’t know if you can quite call it a bubble because obviously those companies aren’t going away soon, but you kind of wonder how high P/E ratios are going to go before ppl start selling.


I don't think that stuff is a bubble. They're all benefiting from the forced shift to a more online lifestyle (which was already good business), and the underlying reality is that this current pandemic recession may lead to a permanent shift towards the online workplace/consumerism/etc. that means those wealth accruals may prove lasting. What is concerning, however, is the broader resilience of the market beneath those behemoths. That doesn't seem sustainable. And what the fuck is going to happen when the housing/rental marketplace mess really comes home to roost?

It's just a really bizarre situation. You have middle and up class folks that largely have merely been inconvenienced by the pandemic (i.e., both financially secure and in jobs "easy" to shift to work from home), and working class on down that has been just brutalized.

I'll tell you one thing. It's really great that we passed those tax cuts and drove up the debt ahead of all this. Great fiscal planning that was.

Also not comforting that 4-5 stocks in the same sector can swing the market this way. Market as a whole is increasingly divorced from reality which doesn’t seem like a good thing.


I actually do not think this is a problem in itself. The real problem is that far too many people believe that the market is representative of the broader economy and household economics (my in laws, for example), and far too many people that DO know better are more than happy to talk about the stock market as if it is representative of the broader economy.* I still vividly remember muttering under my breath at my in laws about the Market jump a few years back not mattering to average people, and my mother in law (who has pretty significant investments, and lived in a very nice Ocean City, NJ, townhouse a block from the beach ... ) taking some offense to the notion that she wasn't an average person.

* All of whom are heavily invested in the markets themselves, and only marginally impacted by the "main street" economy.


On your first point, there issue is that there’s no market “resilience” beneath those behemoths. I’m not sure how much ppl understand this, but when you talk about recent market growth, you are talking about those 5 companies, there’s no broader underlying renaissance, it’s just Big Tech driving indices. Problem with that of course is that you almost get into a “too big to fail dynamic” where the downfall of the group (or even any one of them) could have massive consequences for the entire market.

On the second point, it becomes an issue when runups in P/E ratios are what’s driving growth. I haven’t looked at the others, but Apple’s has spiked in 2020. Has any evidence emerged in the last 6 months that would indicate that Apple is suddenly much more likely to earn more money over the next 5 years as compared to that evaluation on 1/1/2020?

The whole point of investing in market indices and etc. is the diversification of investment. But increasingly, you aren’t really diversifying because all growth is driven by a tiny subset of companies that are all in the same sector. If ppl turn on tech, or folks eventually decide that tech is overvalued, it could really be catastrophic, let alone an actual issue with the companies themselves (as unlikely as it is, imagine an audit fraud or something at one of them).

If you look at the historic capitalization-weighted S&P to the equal-weighted version, the current dynamic (correlation now down into the low-mid 80s) tracks with a number of recent market disruptions, which also presents a cause for concern). Counter of course is that in previous crashes, ppl were overvaluing stocks with no/little value whereas here, no one would dispute that the Big 5 are sustainable and immensely profitable businesses.

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