News from Around the NHL 2

I'm pretty sure it was by accident
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5551 by Rogers Pancreas » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:44 pm

NHL free agency has really turned into an afternoon of shopping at the Goodwill.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5552 by chaosof99 » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:47 pm

What the fuck? How do you pay Martin Jones 2 million dollars?!
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5553 by Rogers Pancreas » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:05 pm

You wouldn't get it. You're not a GM.

By the way, Jake McCabe was just signed for 16 million over 4 years.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5554 by Hovercraft » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:24 pm

This UFA period is all about giving #4-6 D men and 3rd-4th liners too much money and term.

Glad Jones, Yandle and Thompson have no term at least.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5555 by Craig » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:25 pm

Hovercraft wrote:This UFA period is all about giving #4-6 D men and 3rd-4th liners too much money and term.

Glad Jones, Yandle and Thompson have no term at least.


In fairness that's only because none of the #1-3 D men or 1st-2nd liners make it to UFA. Otherwise it would be all overpaying them.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5556 by Hovercraft » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:31 pm

Wow Grubauer to Seattle. I assume they will trade Vanecek now?

They signed Wennberg and Schwartz today too. Finally using that cap space I guess.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5557 by jester » Wed Jul 28, 2021 3:06 pm

Craig wrote:
Hovercraft wrote:This UFA period is all about giving #4-6 D men and 3rd-4th liners too much money and term.

Glad Jones, Yandle and Thompson have no term at least.


In fairness that's only because none of the #1-3 D men or 1st-2nd liners make it to UFA. Otherwise it would be all overpaying them.


You say that, but maybe the worst contract we've seen is for Seth Jones.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5558 by jester » Wed Jul 28, 2021 3:58 pm



Look guys, I like the guy, but Meltzer is statistically illiterate.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5559 by FlyHigh » Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:07 pm

Holy moly at that Hoffman deal, think he was being healthy-scratched at the end of the season.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5560 by Rogers Pancreas » Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:12 pm

Fitting it was Edmonton offering up those terms.


And re: Meltzer... who fucking cares? He's been unbearable for years now.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5561 by Hovercraft » Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:20 pm

FlyHigh wrote:Holy moly at that Hoffman deal, think he was being healthy-scratched at the end of the season.

I mean, Berube was his coach. I think Hoffman is still a good offensive weapon. 3 years is better than a few of the other forward deals around. Hyman, Goodrow, Coleman, etc

Hamilton deal official, 9 mil for 7 years.

Jester did you see his tweet about dmen average shots on net%? It was like he made up his own analytic.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5562 by dbr » Wed Jul 28, 2021 5:28 pm

Meltzer has changed since gaining employment with the Flyers. Don’t blame the guy, but he has changed.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5563 by jester » Wed Jul 28, 2021 6:00 pm

Rogers Pancreas wrote:Fitting it was Edmonton offering up those terms.


And re: Meltzer... who fucking cares? He's been unbearable for years now.


We have like 3 established media guys, and one of em is Carshitty. Those guys matter because they frame a lot of the discourse, coverage, and questions the team receives.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5564 by jester » Wed Jul 28, 2021 6:01 pm

dbr wrote:Meltzer has changed since gaining employment with the Flyers. Don’t blame the guy, but he has changed.


Eh, he's always been shitty at analytical stuff (and by that I just mean writing, not using advanced stats, etc.).
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5565 by jester » Wed Jul 28, 2021 6:02 pm

Hovercraft wrote:Jester did you see his tweet about dmen average shots on net%? It was like he made up his own analytic.


I didn't mind that one. Ability to get shots through does matter.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5566 by Hovercraft » Wed Jul 28, 2021 6:13 pm

jester wrote:
Hovercraft wrote:Jester did you see his tweet about dmen average shots on net%? It was like he made up his own analytic.


I didn't mind that one. Ability to get shots through does matter.


Yeah but the way he presented it was very odd.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5567 by jester » Wed Jul 28, 2021 6:17 pm

Hovercraft wrote:
jester wrote:
Hovercraft wrote:Jester did you see his tweet about dmen average shots on net%? It was like he made up his own analytic.


I didn't mind that one. Ability to get shots through does matter.


Yeah but the way he presented it was very odd.


So, right. What is going on there is that he knows analytics shits all over Ristolainen, and he's looking for reasons to justify his support of the Ristolainen deal in the face of the analytics. But he doesn't really know how to effectively present statistical arguments, and it comes out like that.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5568 by CantSeeColors » Wed Jul 28, 2021 9:28 pm

jester wrote:
Hovercraft wrote:Jester did you see his tweet about dmen average shots on net%? It was like he made up his own analytic.


I didn't mind that one. Ability to get shots through does matter.

In the current theme of overpaid joneses, this just reminded me of good old randy “I shoot for the shin pads, right?” Jones
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5569 by jester » Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:54 am

CantSeeColors wrote:
jester wrote:
Hovercraft wrote:Jester did you see his tweet about dmen average shots on net%? It was like he made up his own analytic.


I didn't mind that one. Ability to get shots through does matter.

In the current theme of overpaid joneses, this just reminded me of good old randy “I shoot for the shin pads, right?” Jones


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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5570 by Rogers Pancreas » Thu Jul 29, 2021 6:15 pm

It makes me sad that we're spending time talking about Nate Thompson, Robert Hagg, Rasmus Ristolainen, Randy Jones and Scott Laughton.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5571 by Hovercraft » Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:34 pm

Hextall just signed Manning to Pit. He's another one for that group. (edit, this doesn't seem to be accurate)

I wouldn't put Laughton in there, at least not yet. I do think it's a waste of money if he starts the year on the 4th line though, and getting a high pick for him last deadline would have been a good idea.

Seems like one of Laughton, Lindblom or Frost will be on 4th line (or scratched/ahl for Frost). Hard to predict how Lindblom will play this year, but 3 mil on the 4th line sucks either way.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5572 by jester » Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:18 pm

Hovercraft wrote:Hextall just signed Manning to Pit. He's another one for that group.
I wouldn't put Laughton in there, at least not yet. I do think it's a waste of money if he starts the year on the 4th line though, and getting a high pick for him last deadline would have been a good idea.

Seems like one of Laughton, Lindblom or Frost will be on 4th line (or scratched/ahl for Frost). Hard to predict how Lindblom will play this year, but 3 mil on the 4th line sucks either way.


As of right now, Laughton is most likely your 3C (he's a better wing, but this is okay to start). Then you're going to have heavy competition for wing spots, and some interesting choices for 4C.

Honestly, there are a number of good problems to have if competition improves play. This team has a lot of young forward depth with potential. If, for example, Frost has a strong camp and earns 3C minutes, that would be fantastic.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5573 by Hovercraft » Thu Jul 29, 2021 10:25 pm

Yeah competition is good you're right. Hopefully Thompson doesn't win a spot by default.

Werenski just signed for 9.6mil. Crazy
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5574 by Rogers Pancreas » Fri Jul 30, 2021 8:06 am

Hovercraft wrote:Hextall just signed Manning to Pit. He's another one for that group. (edit, this doesn't seem to be accurate)

I wouldn't put Laughton in there, at least not yet. I do think it's a waste of money if he starts the year on the 4th line though, and getting a high pick for him last deadline would have been a good idea.

Seems like one of Laughton, Lindblom or Frost will be on 4th line (or scratched/ahl for Frost). Hard to predict how Lindblom will play this year, but 3 mil on the 4th line sucks either way.

I only put Laughton in there, because while we're quibbling over whether he's a 2nd or 3rd-liner Tampa Bay just won their second Stanley Cup in as many years, and they just extended Brayden Point to the tune of 9 million dollars a year. We're living in totally different worlds, and it's just depressing to think about.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5575 by FlyHigh » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:21 am

Hovercraft wrote:Yeah competition is good you're right. Hopefully Thompson doesn't win a spot by default.

Werenski just signed for 9.6mil. Crazy


That seems insane, big signing for their org though. This FA market makes me mildly nervous that even if Risto plays well we’d have to give 8x7 to stay or something like that.

Perry to Bolts a very nice signing for them.

Re: Frost, I was thinking about this the other day, I’m not sure why he doesn’t have a bit more buzz. Admittedly couldn’t stick in the NHL as a 20 year-old, but was an AHL all-star for whatever that’s worth, really played well in junior and is still just going into his 22 year-old season.

I’m not projecting some kind of major breakout, but 20-30 points and holding down the 3C spot doesn’t seem wildly outside the realm of possibility, especially since Couturier/Hayes will probably take the tougher defensive matchups regardless.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5576 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:03 am

FlyHigh wrote:Re: Frost, I was thinking about this the other day, I’m not sure why he doesn’t have a bit more buzz. Admittedly couldn’t stick in the NHL as a 20 year-old, but was an AHL all-star for whatever that’s worth, really played well in junior and is still just going into his 22 year-old season.

I’m not projecting some kind of major breakout, but 20-30 points and holding down the 3C spot doesn’t seem wildly outside the realm of possibility, especially since Couturier/Hayes will probably take the tougher defensive matchups regardless.


I think there is definitely reason for optimism there, and it really sucks he got injured last year as it would have been a really good opportunity for him to jump in. I also think Laczynski looked good before he got hurt. For all the doom and gloom of last year, I think an underlying reality is that people got ahead of themselves the year before with how far along this team was, and a confluence of factors resulted in last year sucking ass ... but the truth was this team was somewhere between in each of those years, and STILL has considerable depth at or just below established NHL level.

Their real problem is that they need some real top-end talent, which is tough.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5577 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:05 am

Rogers Pancreas wrote:I only put Laughton in there, because while we're quibbling over whether he's a 2nd or 3rd-liner Tampa Bay just won their second Stanley Cup in as many years, and they just extended Brayden Point to the tune of 9 million dollars a year. We're living in totally different worlds, and it's just depressing to think about.


I guess, but that's also 31 other teams basically.

Tampa also signed Pebbles to be their 4th line C and have significant cap challenges overall. So even they're dealing with this stuff.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5578 by Craig » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:15 am

jester wrote:
FlyHigh wrote:Re: Frost, I was thinking about this the other day, I’m not sure why he doesn’t have a bit more buzz. Admittedly couldn’t stick in the NHL as a 20 year-old, but was an AHL all-star for whatever that’s worth, really played well in junior and is still just going into his 22 year-old season.

I’m not projecting some kind of major breakout, but 20-30 points and holding down the 3C spot doesn’t seem wildly outside the realm of possibility, especially since Couturier/Hayes will probably take the tougher defensive matchups regardless.


I think there is definitely reason for optimism there, and it really sucks he got injured last year as it would have been a really good opportunity for him to jump in. I also think Laczynski looked good before he got hurt. For all the doom and gloom of last year, I think an underlying reality is that people got ahead of themselves the year before with how far along this team was, and a confluence of factors resulted in last year sucking ass ... but the truth was this team was somewhere between in each of those years, and STILL has considerable depth at or just below established NHL level.

Their real problem is that they need some real top-end talent, which is tough.


Their real problem was borderline historically bad goaltending, no? Like Hart was letting in 1.25 more goals a game than the year before.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5579 by FlyHigh » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:17 am

jester wrote:
FlyHigh wrote:Re: Frost, I was thinking about this the other day, I’m not sure why he doesn’t have a bit more buzz. Admittedly couldn’t stick in the NHL as a 20 year-old, but was an AHL all-star for whatever that’s worth, really played well in junior and is still just going into his 22 year-old season.

I’m not projecting some kind of major breakout, but 20-30 points and holding down the 3C spot doesn’t seem wildly outside the realm of possibility, especially since Couturier/Hayes will probably take the tougher defensive matchups regardless.


I think there is definitely reason for optimism there, and it really sucks he got injured last year as it would have been a really good opportunity for him to jump in. I also think Laczynski looked good before he got hurt. For all the doom and gloom of last year, I think an underlying reality is that people got ahead of themselves the year before with how far along this team was, and a confluence of factors resulted in last year sucking ass ... but the truth was this team was somewhere between in each of those years, and STILL has considerable depth at or just below established NHL level.

Their real problem is that they need some real top-end talent, which is tough.


Yeah I think the top-end point is the major reason why this iteration of the team will not be a main Cup contender and why the Hextall era will be a failure (unless someone really, really pops).

It’s not impossible for a team built around depth to compete (Habs this year, Preds 2016, Vegas 2018, arguably Sharks 2017), but having a true elite talent up front really makes it a lot easier.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5580 by FlyHigh » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:20 am

Craig wrote:
jester wrote:
FlyHigh wrote:Re: Frost, I was thinking about this the other day, I’m not sure why he doesn’t have a bit more buzz. Admittedly couldn’t stick in the NHL as a 20 year-old, but was an AHL all-star for whatever that’s worth, really played well in junior and is still just going into his 22 year-old season.

I’m not projecting some kind of major breakout, but 20-30 points and holding down the 3C spot doesn’t seem wildly outside the realm of possibility, especially since Couturier/Hayes will probably take the tougher defensive matchups regardless.


I think there is definitely reason for optimism there, and it really sucks he got injured last year as it would have been a really good opportunity for him to jump in. I also think Laczynski looked good before he got hurt. For all the doom and gloom of last year, I think an underlying reality is that people got ahead of themselves the year before with how far along this team was, and a confluence of factors resulted in last year sucking ass ... but the truth was this team was somewhere between in each of those years, and STILL has considerable depth at or just below established NHL level.

Their real problem is that they need some real top-end talent, which is tough.


Their real problem was borderline historically bad goaltending, no? Like Hart was letting in 1.25 more goals a game than the year before.


Yep, I was listening to PDOcast the other day and they were kind of crapping on the Flyers team D before they casually dropped in the facts that the Flyers were slightly above-average in expected goals against and in expected save percentage last year.

Even if ppl think that public models don’t capture how bad some of the breakdowns were (I’d probably tend to agree with at least some of that and clearly the front office thinks there was an issue), if they get league average goaltending they’re probably in the playoffs.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5581 by Craig » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:22 am

Some things break the metrics too. A team that has no faith in their goalie stops doing all kinds of other stuff right too because they don't have any faith that the saves are coming. Fucks everything up.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5582 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:22 am

Craig wrote:Their real problem was borderline historically bad goaltending, no? Like Hart was letting in 1.25 more goals a game than the year before.


That was the no. 1 problem, yes, even if pundits do not want to lay as much blame as they should there.

That said, a few other things were not going their way. Phillipe Myers forgot how to play hockey, which led to the 2nd pairing being an abject disaster -- which is why he became expendable as opposed to untouchable. Really, for a long stretch of the season defense in general was a complete disaster, they were giving up a disproportionate of golden scoring chances. So, while Hart/Elliot weren't great, the defense was more of an influence on their numbers than is often the case, IMO. In addition to that, you had some young forwards that struggled. NAK took a huge step back from the previous year, and they'd been banking on him to fill an important bottom 6 role after losing Pitlick to UFA. Patrick was a black hole. Lindblom was clearly still working back from his illness. And Kevin Hayes was significantly less effective than he'd been the year before, likely due in part to the injury that he needed to get fixed after the season.

So, we'll see what this year brings with these changes. Ellis alone will do a lot to stabilize the D, you hope. Who the fuck knows with Ristolainen, and Braun/Yandle might be a solid 3rd pairing until, hopefully, York forces their hands. And the forwards can/should be a bit better. Then there's Hart.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5583 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:24 am

Craig wrote:Some things break the metrics too. A team that has no faith in their goalie stops doing all kinds of other stuff right too because they don't have any faith that the saves are coming. Fucks everything up.


Eh, they were playing sloppy, sloppy hockey to start the year and came out gangbusters and Hart was actually playing pretty well. Then February/COVID hit, and the wheels just completely fell off with Hart and it took them a very long time to clean up their sloppy play.

Just an addendum: I do think the Flyers were an example of one of the things metrics are going to struggle to really capture. The frustrating bit with the Flyers last year was that they'd be playing fine, and then just randomly give up a 2-on-0 for no other reason than laziness/stupidity. Was a recurring theme. Or, and this was probably the number one problem with Myers, the D constantly seemed to be overcommitting on defense and leaving backside wide open looks/breakaways. So in the aggregate it was kind of looking okay as the season progressed, but that wasn't really capturing how bad the breakdowns were.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5584 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:25 am

FlyHigh wrote:Yeah I think the top-end point is the major reason why this iteration of the team will not be a main Cup contender and why the Hextall era will be a failure (unless someone really, really pops).

It’s not impossible for a team built around depth to compete (Habs this year, Preds 2016, Vegas 2018, arguably Sharks 2017), but having a true elite talent up front really makes it a lot easier.


Eh, the thing about depth is that it makes it easier to try and go get that top-end talent. But it also requires a bit of luck in drafting and so forth.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5585 by Hovercraft » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:25 am

It was a chicken and egg thing for sure, Started with bad D, then Hart lost confidence and then D lost confidence in Hart and both D and G were bad for the rest of the year pretty much.

Hextall 1st round drafting was a bit poor considering his reputation as a draft and development GM. He only really hit on like 50% of his first round picks. Rubstov, O'Brien and to a certain extent Patrick were huge whiffs. Provorov, Konecny, Farabee and hopefully Frost were great picks. Can't remember if Hextall draft Sanheim or if he was last pick before Hex took over.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5586 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 10:39 am

Hovercraft wrote:It was a chicken and egg thing for sure, Started with bad D, then Hart lost confidence and then D lost confidence in Hart and both D and G were bad for the rest of the year pretty much.

Hextall 1st round drafting was a bit poor considering his reputation as a draft and development GM. He only really hit on like 50% of his first round picks. Rubstov, O'Brien and to a certain extent Patrick were huge whiffs. Provorov, Konecny, Farabee and hopefully Frost were great picks. Can't remember if Hextall draft Sanheim or if he was last pick before Hex took over.


I mean, but that's about right. The Patrick pick stings as there were obviously other, better options there and he was going with the vanilla pick in Patrick. But that's also the way it goes sometimes when you're drafting 18 y.o. kids. ROI falls off pretty quick in the latter half of the 1st round generally, so you're going to hit some and miss on others. O'Brien looks like a bust, but we'll see. Picks after him haven't really lit it up yet either.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5587 by Craig » Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:02 am

In hindsight the three picks after Patrick were much better players, but it's hard to be that upset when he was widely seen as the #2 prospect in that draft and has had a lot of injury trouble to deal with. The two best players went 4th and 5th, it happens sometimes.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5588 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:16 am

Craig wrote:In hindsight the three picks after Patrick were much better players, but it's hard to be that upset when he was widely seen as the #2 prospect in that draft and has had a lot of injury trouble to deal with. The two best players went 4th and 5th, it happens sometimes.


Yep, all the chatter leading up to that draft was that there were two guys in the running for no 1/2 picks, and then in the weeks just prior it settled into the order they were selected. I am sure there were scouts, etc. that liked other guys more, but it's not like Hextall (or the Devs) went out on limbs with their picks. It would have been surprising at the time if they had picked one of those other guys.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5589 by Hovercraft » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:00 pm

Interesting thread about WAR predicted standings. It has us winning our division, let's hope we can make the playoffs at least.

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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5590 by FlyHigh » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:04 pm

Amazing to me that the Islanders are somehow still hated by analytics guys. You’d think 3 straight years of playoffs and back to back conference finals appearances might change opinions or maybe have you reassess your model, but nope.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5591 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:13 pm

FlyHigh wrote:Amazing to me that the Islanders are somehow still hated by analytics guys. You’d think 3 straight years of playoffs and back to back conference finals appearances might change opinions or maybe have you reassess your model, but nope.


I mean, playoffs are hard to model/predict for pretty obvious reasons. I just checked on that dude, and last year he had the Isles finishing 5th behind our 4th, and they finished 4th. The Devs/Sabres not being any good pushed up all the other teams overall point totals a bit.



Models are not going to be 100% accurate, of course, but specific to the Islanders I wouldn't exactly redo my model after last year. And if you look at his predictions a year ago, they were pretty good on the whole.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5592 by FlyHigh » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:26 pm

I’m generally fine with the analytics guys re: methodology, everyone is going to have misses. I do think the Isles thing is funny though just because of how often Lou does things that appear to be pretty stupid and then it works out. At this point, I’d just pencil them in for a spot until they don’t make it.

My issue with them tends to be the know-it-all attitude which seems to be increasingly pervasive. I still remember the complete lovefest on a few podcasts/articles for the Sharks after the Karlsson trade and how Doug Wilson was just so much smarter than everyone else. 3 years later and here we are… Similarly, the absolute obsession with Hampus Lindholm for a bit there before the wheels fell off for the Ducks, remember listening to something a few years ago where the guest said his model had Lindholm ahead of Hedman.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5593 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:35 pm

FlyHigh wrote:I’m generally fine with the analytics guys re: methodology, everyone is going to have misses. I do think the Isles thing is funny though just because of how often Lou does things that appear to be pretty stupid and then it works out. At this point, I’d just pencil them in for a spot until they don’t make it.

My issue with them tends to be the know-it-all attitude which seems to be increasingly pervasive. I still remember the complete lovefest on a few podcasts/articles for the Sharks after the Karlsson trade and how Doug Wilson was just so much smarter than everyone else. 3 years later and here we are… Similarly, the absolute obsession with Hampus Lindholm for a bit there before the wheels fell off for the Ducks, remember listening to something a few years ago where the guest said his model had Lindholm ahead of Hedman.


I mean, that's a two-way street. Part of that chip on the shoulder is the still-pervasive view that they know nothing from those on the other side of the coin. As noted above, some of the most prominent voices covering the Flyers sound like complete fucking idiots when they try to engage with analytics analysis (Meltzer, Myrtetus, etc.).

I suspect the Metro is a very challenging division to model in general at the moment. You have some aging teams that seem to be just on the edge of collapsing still at the top of the division (Pens and Caps) and then some teams with deep systems with potential and some quality vets (Flyers, Rangers) ... some weaker teams that have a lot of high-end picks and potential (Devs, Sabres prior to this coming year) and the Isles kind of just fall into who the fuck knows category with the "they are very well coached" caveat.

All that said, I think the power of analytics is more in the descriptive than the prescriptive universe. Past production/play is certainly indicative of how future play may work out, but there are a lot of variables once you start peering into the future that make those predictions volatile/difficult. At the same time, if you're one of the traditionalists cheering on the Ristolainen trade because he's "physical and nasty," ignoring the analytics in Buffalo and just hanging your hat on a change of scenery argument is the weakest of weak beer arguments.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5594 by Hovercraft » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:41 pm

He says in the thread that right now Isles look worse than expected because they lost Eberle, Leddy and then Cizikas and Palmeri are still UFA so not counted. He said to check back after Isles make a few more moves. But in general I'd say Isles and Trotz type hockey is under valued in analytics been though we've seen it be successful for years.

Also said he doesn't expect Flyers to have 89% save percentage again this year.

Not sure why his model doesn't like the Caps but I feel like they are more of a lock for playoffs than the rest of the division.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5595 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 12:55 pm

Hovercraft wrote:Not sure why his model doesn't like the Caps but I feel like they are more of a lock for playoffs than the rest of the division.


The Metro is so competitive that a good team is not going to make the playoffs, and none of these teams can really be viewed as being in the elite tier at this stage. He's got 5th to 1st in the Metro as a 5 point gap, the next closest divisional gap there is 16 points.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5596 by Rogers Pancreas » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:11 pm

Hovercraft wrote:He says in the thread that right now Isles look worse than expected because they lost Eberle, Leddy and then Cizikas and Palmeri are still UFA so not counted. He said to check back after Isles make a few more moves. But in general I'd say Isles and Trotz type hockey is under valued in analytics been though we've seen it be successful for years.

Also said he doesn't expect Flyers to have 89% save percentage again this year.

Not sure why his model doesn't like the Caps but I feel like they are more of a lock for playoffs than the rest of the division.

Any statistic or "model" is flawed in that that they're limited; they CANNOT account for the human element. They're based on historical performances, but historical performances don't take into account things like divorces, deaths in the family, illnesses, drug and alcohol abuse, etc. Or, conversely, they do without even knowing it. And that's not without other game-changing elements like injuries. Players and coaches alike might talk in cliches, and say that injuries don't matter, but they absolutely do. If they didn't, Vegas wouldn't move the line when Derrick Henry, Aaron Donald, Tom Brady or Lebron James missed a game.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5597 by jester » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:34 pm

I mean, that's why most predictive models have a stated MOE/confidence interval, it's just not getting displayed there because it would make a standings graphic nonsensical.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5598 by Rogers Pancreas » Sat Jul 31, 2021 1:34 pm

I've honestly never bothered to pay attention.
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5599 by Hovercraft » Sat Jul 31, 2021 4:16 pm

Nash would have been a better add than Thompson for 4th line C:
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Re: News from Around the NHL 2

Post #5600 by Rogers Pancreas » Sat Jul 31, 2021 6:14 pm

So, Yandle and Atkinson both have No Trade Clauses.
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